Russia-Ukraine war updates: ‘Closer than ever’ to peace, Trump says

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If you want to read our explainer on Ukraine’s potential security guarantees, go here.

You can read our story on Ukraine’s claim that it hit a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk with sea drones here.

And for all our coverage on the war in Ukraine, see our page here.

We will soon be closing this live page. Here’s a look at the day’s main developments:

• US President Trump says an agreement aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is closer than ever as his team reports progress after talks in Berlin.
• European leaders say in a joint statement that decisions on potential Ukrainian territorial concessions can only be made by Kyiv, and once robust security guarantees are in place.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that “the EU’s aggressive actions [are] the main threat in the world at the moment”, claiming that the US is trying to put Europe “in its place”.
• Ukraine says it has hit a Russian submarine docked in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in an unprecedented underwater attack. Moscow denies the claim.
• EU countries reaching a deal on using frozen Russian assets to help Kyiv is essential to showing Russia that continuing its war against Ukraine is pointless, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says.

“We’re going to remain in the context of ongoing war.”

That’s the opinion of Nathalie Tocci, director of Italy’s Institute of International Affairs. She explains why she is not hopeful about Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire anytime soon in our video below:

The German top diplomat has made the remarks at the 18th Conference of Italian Ambassadors in Rome.

Johann Wadephul said that Russia has continued its “aggressive and imperialistic” policies in the world.

He stressed that Italy and Germany agreed that no decision on Ukraine could be made without Kyiv.

And there can be no European security decision without the participation of Europeans, he added.

As we’ve been reporting, German Chancellor Merz said that reaching a deal within the EU on using frozen Russian assets to help Kyiv is essential to show Russia that continuing its war against Ukraine is pointless.

Meanwhile, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said that finding a pathway to future financial support for Ukraine among bloc members is proving to be complicated.

Kallas said the “most credible option is the reparations loan” announced by the European Commission president in her State of the Union speech this month.

The plan entails using hundreds of billions of euros in frozen Russian Central Bank assets held in the bloc to replenish Ukraine’s budget and sustain its long-term security. Ukraine would need to repay the loan only if Russia agrees to war reparations for Kyiv.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has denounced the scheme as “fundamentally wrong” and argued it poses financial and legal risks. Italy, Bulgaria and Malta issued a joint statement with Belgium on Friday in which they urged the EU to consider “alternative options”.

Pro-Kremlin EU members Hungary and Slovakia have also opposed any moves to use Russian assets to help Ukraine.

EU leaders are expected on Thursday to finalise details of the reparation loans and offer guarantees to Belgium that it will not be left alone to foot the bill should a potential Moscow lawsuit prove successful.

The new head of the UK’s armed forces has called for “national resilience” in the face of a “growing” risk from Russia, which has waged an almost four-year war on Ukraine.

“It means more people being ready to fight for their country,” Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton said, adding that he wanted to contribute to a debate recently triggered by his French counterpart, Fabien Mandon, who said France must be ready to “lose its children”.

Knighton said that while regular forces will grow, officials also envisage “a major increase” in the number of active reserves and cadets.

Germany’s lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, has suffered a major email outage in what officials told UK newspaper The Financial Times they suspect was a cyberattack during high-stakes US-Ukraine talks hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Members of parliament were unable to access their email accounts for more than four hours, the newspaper reported, citing three senior MPs.

This report was not immediately confirmable.

The attempt to attack a Russian naval base in the port of Novorossiysk failed to achieve any of its aims, with no damage to a single ship or submarine, news agencies have quoted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet as saying.

“The enemy’s attempt at sabotage through underwater drones failed to achieve its aims,” the agencies quoted the head of the fleet’s press service, Aleksei Rulyov, as saying.

“Not a single ship or submarine of the Black Sea Fleet located at the base in Novorossiysk Bay was damaged. And as a result of the sabotage attempt, there were no injuries to crew, who are carrying out their service.”

Earlier, Ukraine claimed its underwater drones had for the first time in the war successfully struck a Russian submarine docked in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

The US president says the talks with his Ukrainian counterpart as well as the leaders of Germany, Italy, Finland, France, the UK, Poland, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and NATO over a settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war have been “good”.

We’ll bring you more on this shortly.

As Ukraine peace talks continue, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting European and US officials in Berlin over security guarantees.

Meanwhile, the EU is split on using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort.

Al Jazeera’s Step Vaessen reports from Brussels:

Blaise Metreweli, the first woman to lead the MI6 Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), warns: “Let’s be in no doubt. Our world is more dangerous and contested now than it has been for decades.”

“Conflict is evolving and trust eroding, just as new technologies spur both competition and dependence,” she said.

In her maiden speech, the new head of Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence service highlighted the “threat” posed by an “aggressive, expansionist and revisionist” Russia.

In the war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin “is dragging out negotiations and shifting the cost of war onto his own population”, she said.

“Russia is testing us in the grey zone with tactics that are just below the threshold of war,” she added.

Metreweli highlighted tactics by Moscow to “bully, fearmonger and manipulate” through cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, drones buzzing around European airports, aggressive activity on the seas, and state-sponsored arson.

Decisions on potential Ukrainian territorial concessions can be made only by the people of Ukraine and only once robust security guarantees are in place, European leaders say in a joint statement after meeting for talks in Berlin.

Among the security guarantees agreed was a European-led force made up of contributions from willing nations that would assist “in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine”, according to the statement.

Here are more comments from the Russian foreign minister’s interview with Iranian state television:

• Sensible people in the West are calling for the restoration of arms control mechanisms, and Russia shares this approach.
• Western media reports claiming Russia cannot be trusted are empty talk.
• The US is telling the EU not to expect it to continually support European adventures.
• Recent contacts with the US regarding Ukraine inspire hope that the Americans have developed a deeper understanding of Russia’s position.
• Russia is awaiting a US response regarding its talks with the Ukrainian delegation.

Russian troops are maintaining full control of the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, Interfax news agency reports, citing Russia’s western military grouping.

Ukrainian attempts to advance from the southwest toward the city’s outskirts are being repelled, the agency added.

Just three days ago, on Friday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kupiansk, hailed the defending troops, and even posted selfies from the centre of the town. A Ukrainian commander also said Russian forces in the city had been completely surrounded.

Russia claims it has had full control of the town in the Kharkiv region since late November.

The Russian foreign minister says the goal of the new US national security strategy is to put Europe “in its place and prevent it from imposing its own order”.

In an interview with Iranian state television, Sergey Lavrov called “the EU’s aggressive actions the main threat in the world at the moment”, adding that Russia “had no reason to negotiate with the current European leadership”.

He said Europe was once again fighting Russia, “this time with the hands and bodies of Ukrainians”, claiming that “Nazism is resurgent throughout Europe”.

Kyiv says its underwater drones struck a Russian submarine docked in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Ukraine has stepped up naval attacks in recent weeks on what it said were Russia-linked vessels in the Black Sea.

Russia’s forces regularly strike the Ukrainian port of Odesa, and two Turkish cargo carriers have been hit in recent days in what Kyiv said were strikes on Russian targets.

“The Security Service of Ukraine carried out another unique special operation and launched a naval attack in the port of Novorossiysk,” the SBU said on Telegram.

“For the first time in history, Sub Sea Baby underwater drones blew up a Russian… submarine,” it added.

The SBU said the submarine “carried four Kalibr cruise missile launchers” used to strike Ukrainian territory. It suffered “critical damage and was effectively put out of action”.

Russia has not immediately commented on the claims.